Speaking to reporters in Baku, Markov said an agreement may be achieved based on some principles and return of the refugees may start.
“The US is preoccupied with the election, for which it needs support from the Armenian diaspora. François Hollande’s government proved not that strong, either. Russia, meanwhile, made some. Russia, meanwhile, made some efforts to unfreeze the conflict and other countries welcomed this undertaking,” the political analyst said, noting that the OSCE Minsk Group will begin to support Russia in this process.
On the table now is the Kazan formula, which was prepared in 2011, Markov added.
“Due to lack of political will at the time, this formula was not fulfilled. In the formula is intended a historical temporary compromise. According to the plan, initially Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven surrounding district have to be freed. How many of them are to be freed is an issue which will discussed during the negotiations. This is an achievement for Azerbaijan,” he said. “Perhaps, peacekeeping forces will be deployed to the region. Most importantly, Armenia will have freed itself from blockade and its economy will grow.”
The political analyst noted that the following stage will have to do with determining Nagorno-Karabakh’s status and the return of the refugees.
“The main discontent was about this particular issue. When a referendum will take place, how many refugees will be returned prior to the referendum and where they will be settled all remain vague. There was no problem in this regard. Armenia said that since the UN resolutions and the Madrid principles are referred to, that means the referendum’s results are predetermined,” he said.
According to Markov, Azerbaijan has achieved a few goals.
“The frozen negotiations reawakened— a very crucial, strategic step. Azerbaijan showed off its military power. In military and technical terms, Azerbaijan is twice as powerful. The population, on the other hand, showed immense support; people expressed willingness to start a new war. Azerbaijan managed to make some territorial change, too small though,” he stressed.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict entered its modern phase when the Armenian SRR made territorial claims against the Azerbaijani SSR in 1988.
A fierce war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. As a result of the war, Armenian armed forces occupied some 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory which includesNagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts (Lachin, Kalbajar, Aghdam,Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Gubadli and Zangilan), and over a million Azerbaijanis became refugees and internally displaced people.
The military operations finally came to an end when Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in Bishkek in 1994.
Dealing with the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the OSCEMinsk Group, which was created after the meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Helsinki on 24 March 1992. The Group’s members include Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, the United States, France, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Belarus, Finland and Sweden.
Besides, the OSCE Minsk Group has a co-chairmanship institution, comprised of Russian, US and French co-chairs, which began operating in 1996.
Resolutions 822, 853, 874 and 884 of the UN Security Council, which were passed in short intervals in 1993, and other resolutions adopted by the UN General Assembly, PACE, OSCE, OIC, and other organizations require Armenia to unconditionally withdraw its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh.